Maps may put wind back in projects' sails
 
This story was published 2/24/2002
By Chris Mulick
Herald staff writer
 
OLYMPIA -- The release of a series of wind-charting maps is forecast to help jump-start the flagging interest in wind power in the Northwest.
 
Wannabe wind farmers soon will have a new tool. This week an Olympia-based coalition of renewable energy backers and rural electric cooperatives plans to demonstrate new tools to examine maps already posted on the Internet that size up wind farm potential throughout the Northwest.
 
"I think it's really going to help landowners to determine their land value," said Heather Rhodes-Weaver, who heads up Northwest Sustainable Energy for Economic Development, or Northwest SEED. "It will be pretty clear where the hot spots are."
 
Wind energy became quite the craze in Eastern Washington last year, highlighted by FPL Energy's completion the world's largest wind farm in Northeastern Oregon and Southeastern Washington.
 
The turbines were quick to erect, environmentally friendly and cost-competitive.
 
But two major developments have slowed development in recent months. Wholesale electricity prices plunged back to between 2 and 3 cents per kilowatt hour, pushing the cheapest wind power toward the high end of the market. More importantly, two federal subsidies expired in January.
 
Those programs, a tax credit for wind farms owned by private developers and cash handouts for those owned by public utilities, had shaved the price of power from any wind project by a whopping 1.7 cents per kilowatt hour for the first 10 years of operation.
 
"Uncertainty is never a good thing," said Rachel Shimshak, director of the Renewable Northwest Project, an advocacy group for environmentally friendly power plants. Falling prices and the end of the subsidies "are combining to reduce the level of activity."
 
Congress is expected to eventually restore the subsidy, and at least 25 wind developers are believed to be scouring Eastern Washington for good sites.
 
About 250 landowners, economic development managers, agriculture advocates and representatives of other interests are expected to attend a two-day Harvesting Clean Energy conference this week at the Pasco DoubleTree.
 
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman is the scheduled keynote speaker Tuesday night, and panels Wednesday will focus on farm-based energy technologies.
 
Tax credits crucial
 
Wind power, either for commercial production or farm needs, has demonstrated the most potential. By the end of 2001, there were wind farms operating in Oregon near Helix, Condon and in Sherman County, plus the massive Stateline project straddling the Oregon-Washington border near Wallula.
 
A host of others were set to go at sites near Finley, Prosser and the Horse Heaven Hills, plus three in Klickitat County and two more in Oregon.
 
But only Energy Northwest's 16-megawatt Nine Canyon Wind Project near Finley is certain to be built, thanks largely to disappearance of the tax credit.
 
"It's really make or break," Aaron Jones, manager of the Washington Rural Electric Association, said of the subsidy.
 
The other seven projects, which would produce almost 260 average megawatts that the Bonneville Power Administration has tentatively agreed to buy, are dangling in limbo.
 
"We wouldn't be able to sign contracts without the tax credit because of the huge impact on price," said George Darr, BPA renewable resources manager. "That is absolutely critical."
 
Further, any extension of the subsidies has to be long enough to allow projects to come online before the subsidies expire again. That will require at least two years.
 
"If Congress passes a one-year extension, that is absolutely useless to us," Darr said.
 
Wind power maps a future
 
Despite the recent downturn, the long-term prospects look encouraging for wind power in Eastern Washington. And the new wind maps are helping point the way.
 
"In general, the maps are a great tool," said Andrew Young, Northwest development director for Zilkha, a Houston-based wind developer.
 
Maps of Washington, Oregon and Idaho already can be downloaded at www.windmaps.com, though browsers can't yet zoom in to inspect a specific property. The maps are color-coded to represent the average wind classification -- between 1 and 7 -- for every 40 acres of land.
 
Winds of Class 4 and above are considered good enough for commercial operation. Class 4 wind is defined as annual average speed of 16 miles per hour 160 feet off the ground.
 
Based on that criteria, hot spots in Washington are near Ellensburg, along the west banks of the Columbia from Mattawa to Wenatchee, in eastern Klickitat County and northeast of Walla Walla.
 
But it takes more than good wind to make a wind farm.
 
It's no surprise that Washington's best wind, according to the map, is along ridges in the Cascades where construction would be difficult and expensive, making those bad sites.
 
Also, good wind farm sites are close to unconstrained electric transmission lines that can supply areas of high demand.
 
Though Montana easily has the Northwest's best wind, it doesn't have the transmission capability nor the electrical demand nearby.
 
"Why spend time prospecting there if you can't export the power?" Young asked.
 
Relative to other states, he considers Washington to be home to "not so great wind" but an attractive market.
 
Most of the state's attractive sites are in Eastern Washington, where there is ample transmission along the lower Columbia River.
 
Weaver, who helped lead the mapping effort, said the margin of error for every 40-acre data set is roughly plus or minus one rating class. That means a farmer whose land the maps give a Class 4 rating can be confident better testing would rank it anywhere from Class 3, which is considered on the margin for commercial operation, to Class 5.
 
Even if a property were listed as a Class 3, "I wouldn't be completely discouraged," Weaver said. "There are certainly areas that could be wildly off."
 
But all agree the maps are better than any other available data that attempts to cover so much territory for determining areas worth more detailed testing.
 
Look before leaping
 
The recent release of the maps to developers who helped finance the $400,000 effort rekindled activity, Jones said.
 
"They were just out racing around the state of Washington to check out some of these areas that were a little bit unknown," he said.
 
Developers will use the data to supplement their own research, and perhaps it will lead them to seek new wind measurements in places they haven't been before. Weaver suspects some landowners soon will hear from developers for the first time.
 
Interested farmers are encouraged to prepare aerial photos, topographic maps and other materials. But they also are cautioned not to sign agreements before consulting other experts.
 
"Don't sign anything until you pretty well figure out what resource you have," advised Jones, encouraging land owners to at least call their electric utility. "Make sure you get a fair price before you sign a long-term agreement."
 
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